Champions League Qualifying July 21: Hearts Sturm Graz and Today's Matches
Hearts begin their Champions League journey today when they travel to Austria to face Sturm Graz in the first leg of their third qualifying round tie. It has been 67 days since the Scottish club's dramatic last-day title collapse at Celtic Park, a game where they came within minutes of securing their first top-flight title in more than six decades. That near-miss earned them a shot at Champions League football, and today they face the first obstacle on a road that could yet lead to the promised land of the group stage.
Hearts are one of 20 teams competing in the third qualifying round, with 10 two-legged ties across Europe. The stakes could not be higher. The winners advance to the play-off round, where they are one step away from the Champions League group stage and its multi-million pound prize money. The losers drop into the Europa League play-offs, a consolation prize that feels like failure for clubs with Champions League ambitions.
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Hearts vs Sturm Graz: The Main Event
The Hearts that take the field at Merkur Arena in Graz today bear only a passing resemblance to the side that pushed Celtic all the way last season. High-profile departures have seen Lawrence Shankland and Cammy Devlin move to Rangers, while head coach Derek McInnes has also departed to join the Ibrox club. In their place, new head coach Wouter Vrancken has had just weeks to assemble a new squad and impose his philosophy.
Vrancken arrives from Belgian football with an impressive reputation. The 47-year-old former Genk and Club Brugge player led Genk to the Belgian Cup in 2024 and was widely regarded as one of the most exciting young coaches in the Low Countries. Hearts are delighted to have persuaded him to take charge, and expectations among the support have risen accordingly. The Belgian has overseen a swift recruitment drive, bringing in players designed to build on last season's near-miss rather than simply replace those who have left.
The tie itself represents a fascinating tactical battle. Sturm Graz finished second in the Austrian Bundesliga last season, 11 points behind champions Salzburg. Their football is built on technical possession and controlled pressing, similar in many ways to the style Vrancken employed at Genk. The Austrian side have won three of their four pre-season friendlies and are entering the competitive season in good form. Their attack is built around young Austrian striker David Atanga, who scored 18 goals last season, and winger Tomi Horvat, who contributed 12 assists.
Hearts, by contrast, will need to find a new attacking identity without Shankland, the club's top scorer for the past three seasons. Lawrence Shankland's 24 goals last season were crucial to Hearts' title charge, and his absence leaves a significant void. The new arrivals up front have big boots to fill, and how they perform in Graz will be crucial to Hearts' chances over two legs.
Sturm Graz enter the match as slight favourites at 1.83, with Hearts priced at 4.50 and the draw at 3.75. However, these odds underestimate Hearts' recent pedigree in European competition. They eliminated PAOK and Ferencvaros in last season's Europa Conference League before falling to Roma in the last 16, a run that demonstrated their ability to compete with established European clubs. The experience gained from that campaign could be crucial tonight.
Fenerbahce vs Ferencvaros: Battle of Europe's Nearly Men
Perhaps the most intriguing tie of the night takes place in Istanbul, where Fenerbahce host Ferencvaros. Both clubs are giants of their respective leagues, yet both have repeatedly failed to secure regular Champions League football. Fenerbahce last reached the Champions League group stage in 2023, while Ferencvaros made it in 2020 and 2021. Both clubs are desperate to return to Europe's top table.
Fenerbahce's recruitment this summer has been aggressive. The Turkish giants spent over GBP 60 million on new signings, including the GBP 25 million capture of RB Leipzig attacking midfielder Xavi Simons. The 19-year-old Dutchman is one of the most exciting young talents in Europe, and his signing demonstrates Fenerbahce's ambition. Alongside him in attack will be Enes Unal, the former Manchester City striker who joined for GBP 18 million from Getafe and brings proven goalscoring pedigree with 45 goals in 79 appearances in Spanish football.
Ferencvaros, by contrast, have taken a more measured approach. The Hungarian champions have retained the core of the side that won the league last season, focusing on squad depth rather than headline signings. Their strength lies in their defensive organization and experience in European qualifying. They eliminated Slovan Bratislava and Malmo in the previous two rounds and know exactly what it takes to progress through these ties.
The tactical battle will be fascinating. Fenerbahce under new coach Jose Bordalas play with high intensity and aggressive pressing, reminiscent of his successful Valencia side. Ferencvaros, managed by Serbian coach Dejan Stankovic, prefer a more controlled, possession-based approach. The contrast in styles could create an open, entertaining encounter at Sukru Saracoglu Stadium.
Fenerbahce are strong favourites at 1.67, with Ferencvaros at 5.50 and the draw at 4.00. The Hungarian side have won four of their last six away Champions League qualifiers, however, and should not be underestimated. Ferencvaros' ability to score away from home could be crucial. In their last 10 away Champions League qualifiers, they have scored in nine of them.
Young Boys vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: Experience vs Youth
The fixture between Young Boys and Maccabi Tel Aviv in Bern pitches experience against youth. The Swiss side have reached the Champions League group stage in three of the last five seasons and know exactly what is required to negotiate these ties. Maccabi Tel Aviv, by contrast, are the darlings of this qualifying campaign, having reached the third round by eliminating FC Zurich and Midtjylland with a squad whose average age is just 23.
Young Boys' advantage lies in their familiarity with this stage of the competition. The Swiss champions have been here before, many times, and have the tactical know-how and squad depth to navigate the two-legged format. Their attack is built around French forward Rogerio Almeida, who scored 22 goals last season, and Swiss international midfielder Denis Zakaria, who returned to Switzerland from Juventus and provides the physical presence in midfield.
Maccabi Tel Aviv's route to this round has been the story of the qualifying campaign so far. They beat FC Zurich 3-1 on aggregate despite being outplayed in both legs, relying on clinical finishing and excellent goalkeeping. Against Midtjylland, they lost the first leg 2-0 but won the return 4-1 to advance on away goals. The Israeli side are arguably the most unpredictable team left in qualifying, capable of beating anyone on their day but equally vulnerable to collapses.
The key battle will be in midfield, where Maccabi's young trio of 20-year-old Osher Dada, 21-year-old Dor Turgeman and 22-year-old Stav Nachmani will face the experienced Zakaria and veteran Swiss midfielder Fabian Frei. If Maccabi's young midfielders can impose their technical quality and energy, they could create problems for Young Boys. If the Swiss side can neutralize them, their experience should tell.
Young Boys are favourites at 1.72, with Maccabi Tel Aviv at 5.00 and the draw at 3.80. However, these odds do not account for Maccabi's remarkable run of form in qualifying. They have won four of their last five Champions League qualifiers, with the only defeat coming in that first leg against Midtjylland. With momentum and youthful exuberance on their side, Maccabi could be the value bet in this tie.
Dinamo Zagreb vs Olympiacos: Repeat of 2024 Final
The tie between Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiacos is a repeat of the 2024 Europa Conference League final, which Olympiacos won 1-0 in Athens. Both clubs have bigger ambitions this season, however, and neither will be satisfied with dropping into the Europa League. For Dinamo, reaching the Champions League group stage would be the culmination of a three-year project under coach Nenad Bjelica. For Olympiacos, it would represent a return to the competition they last graced in 2022.
Dinamo's strength this season has been defensive solidity. They conceded just 24 goals in 36 league matches and kept 19 clean sheets. Their goalkeeper, Ivica Ivusic, has been in exceptional form and was named the Croatian League's Goalkeeper of the Season. In attack, Bruno Petkovic remains the focal point, with 19 goals last season, but it is the wider supporting cast that has improved. winger Marko Pjaca, back after his spells at Juventus and Torino, has provided 12 assists, and young midfielder Martin Baturina is emerging as one of Croatia's brightest talents.
Olympiacos have undergone significant change since their Europa Conference League triumph. Pedro Martins, who led them to that victory, departed for Roma, and has been replaced by former Real Betis boss Manuel Pellegrini. The Chilean coach has brought in nine new signings, including former Barcelona forward Memphis Depay, who joined on a free transfer after leaving Atletico Madrid. Depay brings proven goalscoring pedigree at the highest level and could be the difference in a tight tie.
The tactical approach will be interesting. Bjelica's Dinamo play a controlled, patient passing game, looking to create openings through sustained possession. Pellegrini's Olympiacos are more direct, relying on quick transitions and the individual quality of Depay and supporting striker Kostas Fortounis. The contrast in styles should make for an intriguing first leg in Zagreb.
Dinamo Zagreb are slight favourites at 2.20, with Olympiacos at 3.40 and the draw at 3.30. The odds suggest a very evenly matched tie, which is appropriate given the pedigree of both clubs. Olympiacos have the advantage of more European experience overall, but Dinamo have home advantage and a settled squad. This could go to the wire in the second leg in Athens.
Other July 21 Fixtures to Watch
While the four ties above take centre stage, there are six other first leg matches taking place today that warrant attention. Crvena Zvezda face Sheriff Tiraspol in Belgrade, with the Serbian side heavily favoured at 1.40 after finishing 18 points clear at the top of their domestic league. Sheriff, the Moldovan champions who famously knocked out Real Madrid in 2021, are priced at 7.50 but have a history of giant-killing in European competition.
Slovan Liberec host Qarabag in an intriguing tie between two clubs with recent Champions League experience. The Czech side reached the group stage in 2024, while Qarabag have been regulars in recent years. Slovan Liberec are favourites at 2.10, but Qarabag at 3.80 have the know-how to get a result on the road. The Azerbaijani side have won three of their last four away Champions League qualifiers.
Molde face Viktoria Plzen in a battle between two clubs who know each other well from previous qualifying campaigns. The Norwegian side finished third in the Eliteserien last season but have been bolstered by the return of Magnus Wolff Eikrem, the former Manchester United academy product who rejoined on a free transfer from Seattle Sounders. Molde are slight favourites at 2.30, with Viktoria Plzen at 3.20 and the draw at 3.40.
Rigas FS host Bodo Glimt in the least fashionable tie of the night but potentially one of the most entertaining. The Latvian champions are massive underdogs at 6.00, with Bodo Glimt at 1.55, but the Norwegian side have shown vulnerability in qualifying this season. They needed extra time to beat HJK Helsinki in the previous round and could be vulnerable to a counter-attacking approach from Rigas FS.
Betting Odds and Value Bets
The betting markets for tonight's matches offer several value opportunities for those willing to look beyond the obvious favourites. Fenerbahce at 1.67 against Ferencvaros is too short given the Hungarian side's recent form and away record in qualifying. A better value bet might be Ferencvaros to score at 1.83, which has landed in nine of their last 10 away qualifiers.
Hearts at 4.50 to win in Graz looks generous given their recent European pedigree. While a victory is unlikely, the draw at 3.75 represents better value. Hearts have drawn five of their last eight away European matches, and a goalless draw would put them in a strong position for the second leg at Tynecastle.
Maccabi Tel Aviv to qualify at 3.10 is perhaps the standout value bet of the night. The Israeli side have momentum, youth on their side, and have already shown an ability to overturn deficits in this qualifying campaign. Young Boys' experience should give them the edge, but at those odds, Maccabi offer significant value.
For those looking for more speculative bets, Rigas FS to score against Bodo Glimt at 2.10 could pay off. The Latvian side have scored in seven of their last nine home European matches, and Bodo Glimt's defence has looked leaky in pre-season. Another interesting option is both teams to score in Dinamo Zagreb vs Olympiacos at 2.20. Both sides have attacking talent and will be keen to avoid a goalless draw that leaves everything to play for in the second leg.
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Predictions: Who Advances to the Play-offs?
Predicting the winners of Champions League qualifying ties is notoriously difficult, but based on form, squad depth and recent European pedigree, here is how tonight's ties are likely to unfold over two legs.
Hearts vs Sturm Graz: Hearts 2-1 Sturm Graz (First Leg). Hearts' experience from last season's European run should give them the edge. Expect a narrow win in Austria and a comfortable victory in Edinburgh. Hearts to advance 3-1 on aggregate.
Fenerbahce vs Ferencvaros: Fenerbahce 2-0 Ferencvaros (First Leg). Fenerbahce's attacking firepower should prove too much for Ferencvaros over two legs. A comfortable win in Istanbul followed by a tighter away win. Fenerbahce to advance 4-1 on aggregate.
Young Boys vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: Young Boys 1-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (First Leg). This is the most evenly matched tie of the night. Young Boys' experience should see them through, but expect a tight encounter. Young Boys to advance 3-2 on aggregate.
Dinamo Zagreb vs Olympiacos: Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 Olympiacos (First Leg). Another tie that could go either way. Dinamo's home advantage and settled squad give them the edge, but Olympiacos have the individual quality to cause problems. Dinamo Zagreb to advance 2-2 on away goals.
The second legs take place next week, with the winners advancing to the play-off round in early August. Those play-offs represent the final barrier between these clubs and the Champions League group stage, where the real prize money and prestige await. For now, the focus is on tonight, where 90 minutes could shape the futures of clubs across Europe.
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