Sunday, May 18, 2026. Ten matches. Ten simultaneous kick-offs at 16:00 BST. The Premier League does final day drama better than any league in world football, and this season's finale has everything: a title race that could go to the wire, Champions League spots still to be decided, and a relegation battle involving some of the biggest clubs in English football.
Here is every scenario, every fixture, and every prediction you need for the final day of the 2025-26 Premier League season.
The Title Race: Arsenal vs Manchester City
The big question: can Manchester City snatch the title from Arsenal's grasp on the final day?
The table after 37 games:
- Arsenal: 82 points, 37 played, GD +53
- Manchester City: 80 points, 37 played, GD +49
Arsenal have a two-point lead. City have a slightly inferior goal difference. The math is straightforward.
Scenario 1: Arsenal win at home to Bournemouth. Arsenal finish on 85 points. Champions. Regardless of what City do. Simple as that.
Scenario 2: Arsenal draw and City win. Arsenal finish on 83 points, City on 83 points. It comes down to goal difference. Arsenal currently lead by 4 goals. If City win by a larger margin than Arsenal draw, City win the title on goal difference. This is the scenario that keeps Pep Guardiola up at night and gives Mikel Arteta heartburn.
Scenario 3: Arsenal lose and City win. Arsenal stay on 82, City reach 83. City are champions. Arsenal would need to pick themselves up for a Champions League final just days later.
Scenario 4: Both teams draw. Arsenal finish on 83, City on 81. Arsenal are champions.
Scenario 5: City fail to win. Arsenal are champions regardless of their own result.
The bottom line: Arsenal control their destiny. Win, and the title returns to North London for the first time since 2004. Anything less, and the door opens for City to stage one of their trademark final-day heists.
Champions League Spots: Who Makes the Top Five?
The Premier League's five Champions League spots are not all settled. Here is where things stand:
- Arsenal (82 pts): Qualified
- Manchester City (80 pts): Qualified
- Aston Villa (72 pts): Qualified after 4-1 win over Liverpool
- Liverpool (68 pts): Need a point to guarantee fourth
- Newcastle (67 pts): Need to win and hope Liverpool lose
- Chelsea (66 pts): Must win and need both Liverpool and Newcastle to drop points
Liverpool's demolition at Villa Park means they are not mathematically safe yet. Their goal difference (+28) is significantly better than Newcastle's (+19) and Chelsea's (+16), so even a draw would almost certainly be enough. But after the performance at Villa Park, nothing can be taken for granted.
The key fixture: Liverpool travel to already-relegated Wolves on the final day. On paper, three points. But Wolves have nothing to lose and would love to drag Liverpool down with them.
Newcastle host Everton. Chelsea travel to Brighton. Both will be watching Liverpool's result from Molineux with extreme interest.
Europa League and Conference League Places
Whoever finishes sixth and seventh will take the Europa League and Conference League spots (assuming the FA Cup winner has already qualified for Europe through their league position).
The race for sixth:
- Chelsea (66 pts): Control their own fate for sixth
- Brighton (63 pts): Need a result against Chelsea to have any chance
- Bournemouth (61 pts): Outside shot if results go their way
The clash between Brighton and Chelsea at the Amex is effectively a Europa League play-off. Chelsea need just a draw. Brighton must win.
The Relegation Battle: Who Goes Down?
Burnley and Wolves are already down. The third relegation spot will be decided on the final day between two clubs who spent the season in the bottom half: Tottenham and West Ham.
- Tottenham: 17th, 38 points, GD -12
- West Ham: 18th, 37 points, GD -18
The scenarios:
- If Tottenham win at Leeds: they are safe regardless of West Ham's result.
- If Tottenham draw and West Ham win: West Ham survive on goal difference (unless Spurs win by a huge margin elsewhere).
- If Tottenham lose and West Ham draw: both finish on 38 points. Goal difference saves Spurs (-12 vs -18).
- If both lose: Tottenham survive on goal difference.
West Ham host Aston Villa, who have already secured Champions League football and may rotate. That could be the decisive factor. Unai Emery has nothing to play for, while Graham Potter's West Ham are fighting for their Premier League lives.
Tottenham travel to Leeds, who are safe in mid-table but will want to give their home fans a positive end to the season. Spurs have won just one of their last ten away matches. The pressure is immense.
Golden Boot Race: Final Day Decider
The Golden Boot is going down to the wire. Three strikers are separated by a single goal:
- Alexander Isak (Newcastle): 22 goals
- Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa): 22 goals
- Erling Haaland (Manchester City): 21 goals
- Mohamed Salah (Liverpool): 21 goals
Haaland has scored on the final day in each of his three Premier League seasons. He scored twice against West Ham on the final day of 2022-23 to clinch the Golden Boot with 36 goals. If any player is built for final-day drama, it is the Norwegian.
Isak faces Everton at home. Watkins travels to West Ham with Villa rotation a possibility. Haaland hosts Southampton. Salah travels to Wolves. The smart money is on Haaland, but Isak has been remarkably consistent all season.
Every Final Day Fixture and What Is at Stake
All kick-offs at 16:00 BST, Sunday May 18, 2026:
Arsenal vs Bournemouth (Emirates Stadium)
Stakes: Arsenal need a win to guarantee the Premier League title. Bournemouth are safe in mid-table. The Emirates will be a cauldron of expectation and anxiety.
Manchester City vs Southampton (Etihad Stadium)
Stakes: City must win and hope Arsenal drop points. Southampton are already relegated. On paper, a routine City win. But final days have produced surprises before.
Wolves vs Liverpool (Molineux)
Stakes: Liverpool need a point to guarantee Champions League football. Wolves are relegated and playing for pride. Expect a fired-up Wolves side with nothing to lose.
Newcastle vs Everton (St James' Park)
Stakes: Newcastle must win and hope Liverpool slip up to claim a Champions League spot. Also, Alexander Isak chases the Golden Boot. The atmosphere at St James' Park will be electric.
Brighton vs Chelsea (Amex Stadium)
Stakes: A Europa League play-off. Chelsea need a draw, Brighton must win. Both clubs have had disappointing seasons and European football would salvage something.
West Ham vs Aston Villa (London Stadium)
Stakes: West Ham must win to have any chance of survival. Villa are already qualified for the Champions League and may rotate heavily.
Leeds vs Tottenham (Elland Road)
Stakes: Tottenham need a win to guarantee Premier League survival. A draw might be enough depending on West Ham's result. Leeds are safe in mid-table.
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham (City Ground)
Stakes: Minimal. Both sides are safe. A chance for end-of-season experimentation and farewells.
Brentford vs Crystal Palace (Gtech Community Stadium)
Stakes: Both safe. Brentford will want to finish a strong season on a high at home.
Manchester United vs Leicester (Old Trafford)
Stakes: United's miserable season ends with a dead rubber. Leicester are safe in mid-table. Expect protests and empty seats at Old Trafford.
Final Day Predictions: Our Picks
Based on form, motivation, and tactical matchups:
- Arsenal 2-0 Bournemouth: Arsenal get the job done. The Emirates roars them to the title.
- Man City 4-0 Southampton: Routine. Haaland scores two. Not enough.
- Wolves 1-1 Liverpool: Relegated Wolves make it difficult. Liverpool scrape the point they need.
- Newcastle 3-1 Everton: Isak scores but it is not enough for the top five.
- Brighton 1-2 Chelsea: Chelsea steal sixth place with a clinical away performance.
- West Ham 2-1 Aston Villa: Villa rotate and West Ham fight for their lives.
- Leeds 1-1 Tottenham: Spurs survive on goal difference. Barely.
Title winner: Arsenal. They have led for most of the season and they are not going to blink on the final day. Mikel Arteta's men will be Premier League champions.
Golden Boot: Erling Haaland. He always delivers on the final day. Two goals against Southampton will take him to 23, one ahead of Isak and Watkins.
Relegated: West Ham join Burnley and Wolves in the Championship. Tottenham survive by the skin of their teeth.
Final days are unpredictable. That is what makes them special. Check back on Sunday evening to see how many of these predictions we got right.
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