The 2025-26 Premier League season has delivered one of the tightest title races in years. Arsenal lead the table with 79 points, Manchester City sit two points back on 77, and with two games remaining the margin for error is zero. Meanwhile, the race for European qualification involves nearly half the league, and the relegation fight has Tottenham and West Ham scrambling for survival. Here is every scenario, every fixture, and every permutation that matters heading into the final stretch.
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The Title Race: Arsenal vs Manchester City Down to the Wire
Arsenal have been top of the table for most of the season, but their lead has fluctuated between two and six points since February. Manchester City's 3-0 win over Crystal Palace in GW37 kept the pressure on, while Arsenal dropped crucial points in a 2-1 defeat at the Etihad earlier this spring that saw Rayan Cherki open the scoring for City. That result closed what had been a five-point gap to just two with 180 minutes of football left to play.
The current standings tell the story:
- 1st: Arsenal - 79 pts (W24 D7 L5, GD +42)
- 2nd: Manchester City - 77 pts (W23 D8 L5, GD +43)
Both teams have identical records of five losses. City actually have a slightly better goal difference (+43 vs +42), which means if the teams finish level on points, City would currently edge the title on goal difference. That single goal in the goal difference column could be worth the entire Premier League trophy.
This is the third time in four seasons that Arsenal and City have gone head-to-head for the title. Arsenal won it in 2024-25, City took it the year before, and now the two clubs are locked in another race that will go down to the final kick of the season. The head-to-head record this season is split: Arsenal won the first meeting 1-0 at the Emirates, City won the return 2-1 at the Etihad.
What Arsenal Need to Win the Title
The equation for Arsenal is straightforward: win both remaining games and the title is theirs. No permutations, no goal difference calculations, no relying on other results. Two wins from two matches and Mikel Arteta's side will be crowned back-to-back Premier League champions for the first time in the club's history.
Arsenal's remaining fixtures are challenging but manageable. They host Aston Villa in GW37 before traveling on the final day. Aston Villa sit 5th with 59 points and have their own Champions League qualification to secure, so they will not roll over. But Arsenal at the Emirates have been close to unstoppable this season, winning 15 of their 18 home league matches.
If Arsenal draw one of their two remaining games, they would finish on 80 points. City would need to win both games to reach 83 points, which would give them the title. If Arsenal lose one game, they finish on a maximum of 82 points with one win, while City could reach 83 with two wins. The margin really is that thin.
The key players for Arsenal's run-in are the same ones who got them here. Bukayo Saka has 16 goals and 11 assists in the league this season. Declan Rice has been the midfield engine, starting 34 of Arsenal's 36 league games. William Saliba has played every minute of every league match and has been the defensive anchor that allows Arsenal to play with such structure at the back.
What Manchester City Need to Win the Title
City's path is equally clear in theory but harder in execution: win both remaining games and hope Arsenal drop points in at least one match. If City win both, they finish on 83 points. Arsenal would need to win both to finish on 85 and take the title. If Arsenal draw even one game, City overtake them.
The other scenario is that City win both and Arsenal draw one: City 83, Arsenal 80 or 82. Even if Arsenal draw both and City win both, City take it. The only way City lose the title from here is if they fail to win one of their remaining games.
Pep Guardiola's side have been here before. City have won the title on the final day multiple times in recent memory, including the famous "Aguerooooo" moment in 2012 and the comeback against Aston Villa in 2022. Their experience in pressure situations is unmatched in English football, and Rayan Cherki has been a transformative signing this season, adding the creative spark that City lacked in the first half of the campaign.
Erling Haaland has 24 league goals this season, trailing only the league's top scorer but providing the kind of reliable goal threat that wins tight games. Phil Foden has been excellent since returning from his early-season injury, contributing 12 goals and 8 assists in 28 appearances. The Cherki-Haaland-Foden axis is the most potent attacking trident in the division when they click.
Final Day Fixtures and What to Watch
GW38 on Sunday, May 24 sees all 10 matches kick off simultaneously. The fixture computer has delivered a fascinating final day:
- Arsenal's final match: Away from home against a mid-table side with nothing to play for. On paper, the easier of the two remaining fixtures.
- Manchester City's final match: A home fixture at the Etihad where they have won 14 of 18 league games this season.
- Liverpool vs Aston Villa could be the match that decides Champions League qualification, with both teams level on 59 points.
- Tottenham's survival match will be the most nervy affair of the day, with Spurs needing a result to guarantee safety.
The simultaneous kickoffs mean that league positions can change minute by minute throughout the afternoon. In 2012, City scored twice in stoppage time to win the title. In 2022, they came from 2-0 down to win 3-2. The final day of the Premier League has a habit of producing moments that define entire seasons.
Champions League Qualification: Who Gets the Fifth Spot
The Premier League has secured five Champions League spots for the 2026-27 season after England finished in the top two of UEFA's coefficient table for the second consecutive year. This means fifth place is now a Champions League position, which has opened up the European race considerably.
The current state of play for Champions League places:
- 1st Arsenal (79 pts) and 2nd Manchester City (77 pts) are guaranteed Champions League football.
- 3rd Manchester United (65 pts) have clinched Champions League qualification.
- 4th Liverpool (59 pts) and 5th Aston Villa (59 pts) are fighting for the remaining two spots, with Liverpool ahead on goal difference.
- 6th Bournemouth (55 pts) are technically still in reach but need Liverpool and Villa to collapse.
Liverpool and Aston Villa are level on 59 points with two games each remaining. Villa have a slightly tougher run-in, facing Arsenal in GW37. Liverpool have the advantage of a better goal difference (+12 vs +4), so if they finish level on points, Liverpool take the spot. The most likely scenario is that both finish in the top five, which would give England five Champions League representatives for the second year running.
Manchester United's return to the Champions League after a difficult previous campaign has been one of the stories of the season. Their 65 points from 36 games represents a 15-point improvement on last season, driven by a more pragmatic approach and the emergence of several young players who have added energy and quality to the squad.
Europa League and Conference League Race
Below the Champions League spots, the Europa League and Conference League places are still being contested. With the FA Cup final still to play, the allocation of European spots could shift depending on who wins the domestic cup competition.
The teams in contention for Europa League football include Bournemouth (55 pts), Brighton (53 pts), Brentford (51 pts), Chelsea (49 pts), and Everton (49 pts). Bournemouth have had a remarkable season under Andoni Iraola and are on track for their highest-ever Premier League finish. Their high-energy pressing style has caused problems for every team in the division, and a European campaign would be a historic achievement for the club.
Brighton have continued their upward trajectory with an attractive style of play that has kept them in European contention all season. Brentford's consistency under Thomas Frank has been their trademark once again. Chelsea's season has been inconsistent, with stretches of brilliant football mixed with puzzling defeats that have left them outside the European places with two games to play.
For the Conference League, the remaining spot will likely go to whoever finishes highest among the teams that miss out on the Europa League. With so many teams separated by just a few points, the final day could see significant movement in the European qualifying positions.
Relegation: Tottenham and West Ham Fight for Survival
The relegation battle is a story of two clubs that expected far better seasons. Burnley (21 points) and Wolves (18 points) were relegated weeks ago, but the third relegation spot is still being contested between Tottenham and West Ham.
Tottenham sit 17th with 38 points. West Ham are 18th with 36 points. Two points separate them with six points still available. Spurs' season has been a catastrophe by any measure: a club that was competing in the Champions League two years ago is now fighting to stay in the Premier League. Managerial changes, injuries, and a squad that has underperformed collectively have all contributed to a campaign that Spurs fans will want to forget.
West Ham's situation is equally dire. Their goal difference of -20 is the worst in the division outside the already-relegated clubs, and their form in 2026 has been poor. The Hammers have won just three of their last 15 league matches and are running out of time to save themselves.
The math is simple for Tottenham: one win from their final two games guarantees survival regardless of what West Ham do. A draw and a loss would leave them on 39 points, which might be enough but would rely on West Ham failing to win both their games. For West Ham, nothing less than two wins will give them a realistic chance of staying up.
Final Day Predictions and How to Follow Live
With two games remaining, the most likely outcomes are:
- Title: Arsenal win both remaining games and clinch back-to-back titles. City push them all the way but fall short by two points.
- Champions League: Liverpool and Aston Villa both qualify for the top five, with Bournemouth missing out.
- Relegation: Tottenham survive with a win in one of their last two games. West Ham go down.
But this is the Premier League. The most predictable thing about it is its unpredictability. In a season where Manchester United beat City 4-0 at Old Trafford, where Spurs sacked two managers, where Bournemouth pushed for the Champions League, and where the title race went to the final two games, nothing can be taken for granted.
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