The 2025-26 Premier League season is heading for a dramatic finale. Arsenal sit 5 points clear of Manchester City at the top of the table with 2 matches remaining, but nothing is decided yet. City have a game in hand. The top-five race for Champions League spots is alive. Three teams are fighting to avoid the final relegation place. Here is every scenario, every fixture, and every number that matters heading into the final week.
The Table After Matchday 36
The Premier League standings after the weekend of May 9-10 tell the story of a season that has swung back and forth for months. Arsenal's 1-0 win at West Ham, combined with City's 3-0 victory over Brentford, kept the gap at 5 points. But City still have a game in hand.
Title Race:
- 1st: Arsenal - P36, W24, D7, L5, GF79, GA32, GD +47, PTS 79
- 2nd: Manchester City - P35, W22, D8, L5, GF72, GA32, GD +40, PTS 74
The key detail is that City have played 35 games to Arsenal's 36. City's game in hand, if won, would cut the gap to 2 points with 2 matches left for both teams. That changes the calculation significantly and puts real pressure on Arsenal's final two performances.
Top-Five Race (Champions League qualification):
- 3rd: Liverpool - P35, W22, D8, L5, GD +40, PTS 74
- 4th: Newcastle - P36, W18, D11, L7, GD +15, PTS 65
- 5th: Brighton - P36, W18, D8, L10, GD +12, PTS 62
- 6th: Nottingham Forest - P36, W13, D16, L7, GD +5, PTS 55
Liverpool are effectively secure in third. The real battle is between Newcastle (65 points) and Brighton (62 points) for the fifth and final Champions League spot, with Nottingham Forest (55 points) an outside bet if results go their way.
Arsenal's Path: What They Need to Win the Title
The simplest scenario for Arsenal: win both remaining games and the title is theirs, no matter what City do. Four points from two matches also guarantees the championship. Even 3 points could be enough if City fail to win all three of their remaining fixtures.
Arsenal's advantage is compounded by their goal difference. At +47, they hold a 7-goal cushion over City (+40). In the unlikely event that both teams finish level on points, Arsenal would almost certainly win the title on goal difference. City would need to make up that gap across their three remaining matches, which would require winning by cricket scores while Arsenal lose heavily.
The psychological weight on Arsenal is enormous. They have not won the Premier League since 2003-04, the famous Invincibles season. They led the table deep into both the 2022-23 and 2023-24 campaigns before being overtaken by City. This is the third consecutive season Arsenal have been in genuine title contention, and the fear of another collapse is real.
Mikel Arteta has managed the run-in well so far. Arsenal have taken 13 points from their last 5 matches, grinding out results even when not at their fluent best. The 1-0 win at West Ham, secured through Leandro Trossard's late goal and preserved by a controversial VAR decision, was typical of a team that has learned to win ugly when the stakes are highest.
Arsenal's remaining fixtures:
- Matchday 37: Home fixture against mid-table opposition
- Matchday 38 (Final Day): Away fixture
Neither fixture involves a team with significant stakes in the table, which on paper makes Arsenal's run-in manageable. But "manageable" does not mean easy. Teams with nothing to play for can play with freedom, and the pressure of the occasion can do strange things to players.
Manchester City's Path: Can They Catch Arsenal?
City's situation is clear: they must win all 3 remaining matches and hope Arsenal stumble. Even then, they may need to overhaul the goal difference gap.
If City win their game in hand, the gap shrinks to 2 points with 2 matches each remaining. That would mean Arsenal need to avoid defeat in at least one of their final two games to stay ahead, assuming City keep winning. The pressure would shift entirely to Arsenal.
Pep Guardiola has been in this position many times before. City have won 6 of the last 7 Premier League titles. They know how to handle the final weeks of a title race, even when trailing. Their experience is their biggest weapon, and Arsenal's lack of it is their biggest vulnerability.
City's 3-0 win over Brentford on Matchday 36 was a reminder of their quality when they click. Erling Haaland opened the scoring with a trademark header, Phil Foden added a second with a curling effort from the edge of the box, and Kevin De Bruyne sealed it with a penalty in the second half. It was a routine, professional performance from a team that has made a habit of winning in the final weeks of the season.
City's remaining fixtures:
- Game in hand (Matchday 34 rescheduled): Home vs mid-table side
- Matchday 37: Away fixture
- Matchday 38 (Final Day): Home fixture
The fixture list is not intimidating for City either. Their game in hand is at the Etihad, where they have been formidable all season. The final day is also at home, which could be an advantage if the title is still alive.
The scenario City need:
- Win all 3 remaining matches (reaching 83 points maximum)
- Arsenal lose at least one of their final 2 games
- If Arsenal draw one and lose one (finishing on 80 points), City win the title with 83
- If Arsenal draw both (finishing on 81 points), City need to win all 3 and make up goal difference
City's probability of winning the title, based on bookmaker odds and statistical models, is estimated at around 15%. Possible, but unlikely. Arsenal have been the better team over 36 matches, and the table rarely lies.
The Top-Five Race: Champions League Spots Still Undecided
While the title grabs headlines, the battle for Champions League qualification is equally intense and arguably more competitive. The Premier League has 5 Champions League spots this season thanks to its UEFA coefficient ranking, and places 2 through 5 are not yet fully settled.
Liverpool in third are all but guaranteed a Champions League place. They sit on 74 points with 3 games left and would need a spectacular collapse to miss out. Their 1-1 draw with Chelsea on Matchday 36 was a minor setback but not a damaging one.
The real contest is between Newcastle (65 points, 36 played) and Brighton (62 points, 36 played) for fifth place. Newcastle have a 3-point cushion but have played one more game than Liverpool and have no more games in hand. Brighton, under their ambitious project, have been one of the stories of the season and a win in their next match would put real pressure on Newcastle.
Nottingham Forest, in sixth on 55 points, are mathematically alive but would need a near-perfect finish and a collapse from both Newcastle and Brighton. It is a long shot, but Forest have been resilient all season and cannot be counted out entirely.
The financial stakes are enormous. Champions League qualification is worth between £50-80 million in prize money, broadcasting revenue, and matchday income. For a club like Brighton, who have invested heavily in data-driven recruitment and infrastructure, a Champions League place would be transformative. For Newcastle, backed by their Saudi ownership, it is the minimum expectation for a project that aims to compete at the highest level.
Relegation Battle: Who Goes Down?
At the bottom of the table, the final relegation spot is between West Ham and Tottenham, in one of the most unlikely and dramatic battles in recent Premier League history.
- 17th: Tottenham - P35, W10, D7, L18, GF37, GA54, PTS 37
- 18th: West Ham - P36, W9, D9, L18, GF42, GA62, PTS 36
- 19th: Ipswich - P36, W4, D9, L23, GF37, GA73, PTS 21 (relegated)
- 20th: Southampton - P36, W3, D9, L24, GF25, GA66, PTS 18 (relegated)
Ipswich and Southampton are already down. The fight is between West Ham (36 points, 36 played) and Tottenham (37 points, 35 played) for survival. West Ham's controversial 1-0 loss to Arsenal on Matchday 36 was a devastating blow. The disallowed equaliser would have moved them level with Spurs. Instead, they remain a point adrift with one fewer game remaining.
Tottenham have a game in hand and a 1-point cushion. Their form has been poor all season, but the mathematics favor them. Even a draw from their extra game would give them a 2-point cushion heading into the final day, putting all the pressure on West Ham.
For West Ham, the equation is brutal. They must win at least one of their final two matches and hope Tottenham lose at least one of their final three. If Spurs pick up a single point from their game in hand, West Ham's survival would require winning both remaining matches.
The financial cost of relegation is estimated at over £100 million in lost broadcasting revenue, parachute payments notwithstanding. For both clubs, the stakes could not be higher.
Final Day Fixtures and What to Watch
Final day of the 2025-26 Premier League season: Sunday, May 18. All remaining matches kick off simultaneously at 16:00 BST. This is the most dramatic day on the English football calendar, and this year it could deliver title drama, Champions League heartbreak, and relegation tears all at once.
What to watch on the final day:
- Arsenal's result: If the title is still alive, every goal in Arsenal's match will be tracked across the country. A single goal for or against could be the difference between a parade and despair.
- City's result: If Arsenal have not yet clinched, City's final day match at the Etihad becomes a must-win with the added pressure of needing goals.
- Brighton vs Newcastle: If the top-five race is still alive, these two matches will be followed with equal intensity to the title race.
- West Ham's survival bid: If the Hammers are still in with a chance of staying up, their final day match will be an exercise in raw emotion.
Simultaneous kickoffs mean fans will be checking their phones constantly for updates from other grounds. In the age of live score apps, the experience of following multiple matches in real time has transformed the final day from a local event into a national data experience.
Predictions: How the Final Week Unfolds
Based on current form, fixture difficulty, and statistical models, here is the most probable outcome:
- Title: Arsenal win the Premier League for the first time since 2004. Probability: ~85%. Most likely to clinch on Matchday 37 with a home win, sending the Emirates into celebrations that have been 22 years in the making.
- Champions League places: Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Newcastle in the top four. Brighton take the fifth spot by a single point over Nottingham Forest.
- Relegation: West Ham join Ipswich and Southampton in the Championship. Tottenham survive by 2-3 points despite a dismal season.
The beauty of the Premier League final week is that predictions are often wrong. City have pulled off late-season surges before. West Ham could produce a miraculous escape. Brighton could stumble when it matters most. That is why millions tune in, and that is why every goal, every point, and every decision matters.
Follow every twist and turn of the Premier League final week with live scores, real-time standings, and AI-powered match analysis on iScore.ai. Get instant notifications for goals, cards, and key moments in every match. The season is going down to the wire, and iScore.ai ensures you do not miss a second.